Is the S & P 500 fall now on the cards, as warned in January and August?

I stated in January and again in August and September, what I felt would happen over this second and third quarter of 2010. The S & P 500 has made some efforts to break out, in this third quarter to the upside, after following the predictive pattern I set out in January 2010. I am still comfortable with the view that the market is due a negative move down, following the market's failure to continue its upward movement, resulting from governments' stimulus activities and bailouts in 2008-9. Now that these have been spent and new infusions will be added, only after the shocks have taken effect, which ly ahead. I wish to point at my previous assumptions which I have stated as part of my evaluation of this year's economic market movements.


I said on August 11th, in addition to my prediction as to the S & P 500's movement, that, if I had additional funds I would add the USD/CHF and USOil to my market trades. That statement was as follows: "If I had the funds, I would add two more trades, the USD/CHF and USoil. The first I would trade Short and the second I would also trade Short initially and then, after its support point and full turn has been reached, go Long."

I would be happy at this point to close the USD/CHF NOW, as I don't see the market falling much lower than this. The USD/CHF bottom is most likely here, at this point. I also stated too, go Short -and then Long, as oil turned, switching any time from the end of August to the first week in September would of bought real profits in both directions to this trade. I expect this to continue up to the resistance of around 88 dollars if it breaks through 83$, unless the S & P 500 turns, and a market shock takes place, which has a real possibility of occurring in this month of October. If this happens oil will follow in the short term. It would be reasonable to ask, why didn't I use my funds on the second two trades first? The answer would be, 'I could not be sure when the S & P might fall,' so I needed my limited funds to secure my entry.

I Have also said repeatedly since 2008, that Silver would be an excellent way, of both protecting wealth and making real wealth possible, over the next 5 years in particular. This view still stands. As I study the activities of Governments and the Finance Cartels and their actions over their economies, there is absolutely NO free market today. They, with the exception of only a small number of States appear to have, a bipolar disorder, in their relationship with one-another. Their interests appear to have very little to do with reality and long term philosophical perspectives and agreement with one-another. With the exception of world finance and government oligarch aspirations.

I do not wish to bore readers with my historical knowledge of governments and systems of capital, but, the following are points of historical fact. If this epoch is the final expression of the period of mature Capitalism in decay -and the system is committing suicide, as has happened at least 5 time in the last eight hundred years. Following the periods of Mercantile, Commercial, Finance and Monopoly and the so called Pluralist epochs -and, rebirth's of capitalism. The Geo-Political environment we now see growing, particularly in the last 10 years. Expose an example of the stages which follow the systemic convulsions, which exist, during the periods of decay of capital. Whether a new world empire and capital system is born of this period, only time will tell. What history has shown, is, that it requires periods of usurpation of regions and cultures.

The January warnings moving closure to reality.

I said on January 14th in an article titled "Is a market collapse or correction on the cards", after studying the historical market data available, specifically, using the FX market and S & P 500 historical data, going back to 1983. After looking at the data in detail, there were some worrying trends and points of reference in the data. If you look at that January report -and the graphs within this post, you will see confirmation of my evaluation of the data back in January.


I warned the market may, after the extraordinary period of gains from March 2009, finally peak-out in late March of 2010 -and then, drop about 15 points or more, which as the graph shows, took place from the 26th April to 25th May, some three to four weeks later than predicted, the market's did peak and then fall. Then, I stated the market would then move sideways. The first three months as warned, have now past -and, we are about to enter the second stage as stated in my January report -and shown by the Lime Green line on the graph. This sideways motion, as stated, has continued for no more than three to six months historically. Then followed by a breakout. I believe, will be a major market correction, namely, a Short market move or fall.

The next three months are going to be dangerous in my opinion. So try not to be on the wrong side of the trade (and be cautious of pensions and investment stocks). Also, whilst what I am about to say is in contradiction too normal trading practices, which is, to 'not' follow ( or be cautious) of, the market trend in one's trading strategy. The opposite strategy, is, in my opinion the prudent position, for this period ahead.

This second graph moves out to a weekly chart to show a time line over a greater period, exposing too the reader, some of the areas of support and resistance and information, which I feel, express the dangers that lie ahead. If you study the graph you will see my S & P trade -and, the stop, entry and limit I have set as part of that trade. If I had the funds, I would add two more trades, the USD/CHF and USoil. The first I would trade Short and the second I would also trade Short initially and then, after its support point and full turn has been reached, go Long. The stop strategic point will be very difficult to find -as well as position, as the market has been very volatile since 2009. I am concerned that illegal, H.F.T is taking place -and, may be promoting sharp spikes, which are triggering trader's stop-loses. Therefore, those traders with small accounts are forced to limit their trades in an attempt to ensure they do not have a Call on the account, whilst risking steep stop loses, in an attempt to avoid market spikes promoted by H.F.Ts.

Video expressing systemic dangers

Also, this video by a house member Michelle Bachmann is an example of the systemic issues in the US and elsewhere. As governments and court clique take over the so called free market capitalism. This behavior exposes the threats to the quasi state/private merging cartels in the capitalist system business and finance. The proliferation of this conjunction concerns free marketeers in the FX market and the manipulation that continues to threaten the future of numerous international markets.

We Now Have A Total Gangster Government




Finally, for those out there that feel these points are unfounded, this video may support some of the concerns, which are held by some citizens out there, as to where the future may be leading -and, the possibility that manipulation of more than finance markets are taking place .

How To Brainwash A Nation

Is a market correction or collapse on the cards?

There was a number of macro-economist who felt a correction in the international Markets was on the cards leading up to Christmas, particularly around October. I too felt there would be a correction and agreed with much of the logic I had read at that time. Whilst many more Banks and Finance Companies did collapse, their government's tax payers took the strain and the loses. Halting the systemic convulsions. It was also thought, that the end of year's economic figures of a number of States would also produce negative market responses.

In addition, the large market financial players like Goldman Sachs, J P Morgan, and Chase Morgan et.al but to mention a few, will require a new crisis (as with Goldman Sachs' Billion dollar bets on various industry sector's future crises ahead), to produce new crops for next year's picking; now that the harvesting has been completed for 2009 from March to December. As the realisation that 2010 will give poor value and gains, due to the lack of green shoots and the market peaking midway 2010. Following the market culling and with such disparity in the use of bailout resources. The polemic market sectors and government intervention make it difficult to judge beyond the short term market movements, with so much insider dealing and liquidity around for those in the right group.

Anyway, following the unprecedented market improvement since March of 2009, it's fair to say, that market confidence has returned and borders on complacency for many. The recovery since March has been as a result of the infusions thrown at the banks, who have fed the chosen few and used the free cash to stimulate their own interest in 2009, as well as starting from low bases in the markets, due to the crash 0f 2008. In addition, successful Eastern Markets and Commodities have strengthened the recovery of the Stock Markets. Some top banks particularly in the US have had their best year in three, as a result.

The overall system of Capital outside the banking fraternity have not recovered, particularly, the economies of the UK and US -and are unlikely too in the near future. If the condition of the T Bills and Gilts markets are a measurement of investor concerns for the future of these economies. There is very little interest coming from private national and foreign purchasers in the Bond Market.

The bad news is, that it looks as though its end is near.

After studying a number of market data going back to 1983, there are disturbing patterns in the data. There has never been a recovery so steep and over such a short period as we have at present. And, if my interpretation of the data is correct, two fault lines are on the horizon, one in mid March and again in late June. There is a possibility that the mid March drop of around 15 points could be stepped over, due to the mutated nature of the present government market interference.

This will only store the pressure until late June's pressure reaches its peak, all gains could be lost from 2009 and more. Again, if the governments interfere they will only bring about a stagnation of the markets, contrary to the last 12 month's movement, holding the system on the precipice. At that point, historically, when this point has been reach, the market has hovered for no more than 3 to 6 months, stagnating back and forth without any sustained held gains.

Equally concerning, is that if this data analysis is correct then there are those already aware of this possibility. We could see the UK and US using their Foreign Policies to divert and reconstruct development options under such circumstances. Fiat Currency can and is be printed with impunity during times of national conflict. And, with less negative effects to the economy than during peace time. It's only when that QE money reaches the streets, that major economic damage occurs.