Oil at 75- 80 dollars a barral - will this continue or are there bigger issues?

I said back on November of 2008 that oil would require a price of 75-80 dollars to cover the needs of oil producing countries at this time. Between the deflationary Western economies and the Euro convulsion and crises, improving the dollar value whilst storing inflation and debt for our future. How is this likely to play itself out in the short to medium term? The answer to that question can only be answered after the forth quarter, as expressed through the analysis of the end of year's outcomes for 2010.

There is one certifiable fact that will be made clear by the end of 2010-11, which is, whether the system of many Western economies and their States -and the finance system of the West, have any real or shared interests surrounding policies of shared activity for recovery going into 2011. With capital looking for gains, from anywhere it can, to obtain both profit in the short term, with growth and future development in the long term. Western economies are not going to be seen as the rich humus soil for sowing future seeds for profit. The direction taken by capital, may expose, the short term question as far less relevant, when compared to the long term outlook and the West's position.

I see the existing system of capital, embedding itself into new and un-indebted economies. Capital is indifferent with regard to the people's struggles. It will move to where money, price and value, are best rewarded. Where real ownership of the production processes and control of labor exist -and, where real asset values for their portfolios show hard assets.

This lack of production and growth in Western societies (which is against the logic in nature in the long term, in the majority of environments), in comparison to Eastern economies is now growing closer. With the East's material needs and wants, as well as the new western style appetites being pandered to by profit seeking capital. Finally for the East, capital sees its future development at the table of growth and success for the East, which is likely to bring about great changes in the future. Empires have come and gone throughout history, due to their indebtedness and stagnation -followed by the decay of their economies and Old Order conflicts. And, by the development of fringe and dynamic nations and civilization's merging, then, taking over. Capital as a by-product of redevelopment or rebirth, will brush old systems aside -and, unless major changes take place within this period of decay the outcome will be no different again. As well as their developing education and technology advances for the East. If, positive changes don't take place during this systemic crisis, we may see the West in the future, looking like the tribes of Easter Island during their period of decay.

New UK Coalition Government, what's in store for us now?

As Cameron and Clegg start their new coalition government fact finding mission in Downing Street and Parliament, what can they -and we, expect?

As Cameregg walk the corridors of power with their new mandate to Govern, what will they find inside the cupboard doors. Well, after thirteen years of New Labour monetary policies, following their separation of the BoE from political National Monetary Policy constraints, back in 97. In Brown's view, he said: "I want to set in place a longterm framework for economic prosperity... I want to break from the boom bust economics of previous years." Oh yes, and did the New Tripartite System of Treasury, FSA and the BoE show the UK where too store the boom bust cycles. What legacies have this old group left behind, for the new coalition government.

The degree of intercourse between big business and in particular the Banks, as well as the Petrochemical corporations and, the Bank's quasi-Judiciary (the FSA), have filled every foot of space in the cupboards with skeletons. And, the new term of Skeletons is going too, look more like a holocaust if these closets are finally thrown open. Slowly and gradual, will be the order of the day.

The secret deals which were taking place between the various 'interest groups', are now threatening to leak onto the UK streets through the media machine. Not because, the freedom of information act has improved but, because, the new government will soon find out the extent of the crisis, for the UK economy -and the depth too which the public finance position has sunk. Cameregg will not want to be responsible for holding this baby, when the social service next call for a family report.

The 6bn public spending cuts, stated by George Osborne, the new Chancellor of Exchequer believes, will be the start of new government savings. This figure should cover the interest payments on the 163bn deficit. This doesn't take into account the 282bn of semi-toxic and toxic assets, held under the control of the new quangos, APS and the administrators UKFI, another Treasury quangoand America's equivalent to the FDIC in holding company terms. Based on this system, the above mentioned group are involved in the securitization of the 282 billion. If these assets become valueless -and, in past experience they have, (and let's not forget, why they are held under this system in the first place), RBS have to cover the first 60bn in loses. After that, the loses move to the tax payer at a ratio of 1:9, 10% RBS, and 90% the tax payer. We will see if this new coalition government is able to succeed in its new public finance policy and reduce Treasury spending which has been the life's blood of the economy for some time now!

Here is an example of some of the Global Finance System's issues and some of the issues surrounding EU Banks.This has been taken from Max Keiser.

What Options do I have in this Crisis?

As the crisis worsens, more and more people are showing their exposure
to the crisis as we act within the system there is little choice. So, what
alternatives do we have? Well first, I would like to list examples of
what I call exposure.

The People's position
People with life savings in cash and in investment environments (stocks, shares,
trackers, Pensions etc.). People with over-leveraged Mortgages on one, two or
more properties, Loans of all types and sizes. People who are employed
in the early effected industries in this, the early part of the crisis. As we
accept we are caught up in the coming changes, as is, the reality, with our
personal debts and contractual responsibilities. Logic tells you to
try and get out of the way, but when you are trapped with obligations
and responsibilities, all you can do is 'hope' that things will
recover before you are affected. You can only wait and see, and hope.

So how can I help? Unfortunately, the only people I can do something for,
are those who are reading this -even then, only if, they value the
information set out on this site and, at the cost of those who don't
know what to do, who will become one of the statistics of this systemic crisis.

The Players
This is how I believe the coming problems will play themselves out. I will
use the UK, as an example, for many States who have failed the people and
US and China. I will focus on these as an example of some of major
players in the world today. As well as their position in this crisis
and their likely involvement in the mayhem ahead.

Prognosis
I agree with a number of analysts, we are about to see the largest ever shift of
wealth. 1929 will look quite tame in comparison to the degree of
economic shifts we are about to see. Thanks to weak Governments and the
Global Banking System with its nature based on debt and profit as a
means of production, we now must move forward and change our strategy
to recover from this failing position.

As Governments continue do try and spend their way out of this financial and systemic mayhem, they will only achieve certain outcomes: in their attempt to divert and holt the extent of the crash and liquidity crisis and over-legeraged system, at the cost of the depth and extension of the crisis; the bottling up of inflation for our futures; the explosion of public debt, both, for the present and future generations. In addition, Government's around the world, have given their resources to the banks and big business for their recovery. As next year proves to be even worse, more banks will collapse, after requiring public money which will disappear. This, so that the people can adopted their failures in the form of: expanding Debts, Toxic Waste (banks and big business toxic assets),Taxes, indirect and direct -and Government debt, as well as the collapsing industries and their lost jobs, taking hold around the world.

So what's my advice?
With savings and investments in the firing line, there are two defensive actions that can be taken. Currencies and commodities are becoming more volatile than ever. Although the right stratergist can still make use of the International Stock Markets. So, getting outside the system and protecting yourself, whilst still acting with the system will become more and more important. Changing savings into Gold and Silver is a real move, in getting out side the system, but not in Pools, Certificates and ETFs, unless your ETF is a short term speculative activity. You want possession of your metals. Should you have a considerable amount, there are secure storage facilities available that will protect and validate their existence, which is important during liquidation of the asset.

Mortgages and Loans
On the subject of Mortgages and Loans, whilst we may see interest rates stay low for some time. This will only exist whilst Central Banks pay lip service to politicians and as part of their internationl trading, as well as their rhetoric, to lift the domestic and small business Lender's moral during this finance/Banking crisis. If lending did increase, interest rates would follow. Once Deflation has expressed itself on economies, the Fiat Currency production will make its presense known. With governments printing more and more Fiat currency, which will dilute the value of that Fiat paper adding further Stealth Taxes, with inflation. This action will reduce people's income value. At a particular point, things may feel good for some debt payers (due to the early hyper-inflationary character of over printed Fiat currencies). Then, the banks will increase interest rates to cover their lost revenue value or accounts verses the economic cost of running their business.

Properties Loses, LTV
Properties are loosing their inflated values, which have a long way to fall yet. If you calculate the loses at about 43% over the next two years or so, now would be a good time to move out of over-leveraged Mortgages. Selling at slightly below their market value can move you out of the danger zone. Coming back to the market in the future, will see them at the bottom of this fall. With your Fiat currency falling against real money, Gold and Silver -we will see them out perform inflation, as its nature demands. Also, whilst property values continue to fall in the coming period. You will be in a strong position to recover. Be careful to check there are no obligations in your mortgage product that require you to keep the LTV in positive balance. Don't be fooled by housing cost increases, that is the effect of inflation, not value, its the cost of living going up.

There is insufficient time to explain many of the elements or all of the areas of importance to the act of, buying Gold and Silver. Silver is my personal preference, as I feel it will out perform gold. I would be happy to answer any questions asked of me on the subject. The existing system will not promote this action as inteligent, as it is, the antitheses, of the exiting system. Governments will do all they can to take control after the dollar collapses to stop and control precious metal markets whilst they revert to the Gold Standard in some form and away from Fiat Currencies.

Stocks or Commodities
Being in Stocks and Shares at this time is very dangerous and requires real knowledge under the present conditions, such people are very thin on the ground, as we can see with the Stock Markets around the world. Be very careful and pessimistic about the existing perceptions on the
subject. Commodities have room for development but One needs to know their subject. The above statements are far safer at this moment for those looking for security and protection, with the possibility of profit, in real terms existing under the present climate, a real possibility.

Before these conditions run their course try and use this lower interest period if your not already trapped in a fixed interest position to pay off what you can now, Credit Cards, Secure Loans and Even Mortgages, for those in the position to do so. What ever the Governments and media are saying, this situation is going to be with us for the foreseeable future (decades, not years) and we are going to see many changes.


The Future of the Fiat Currency
The stage that will bring the additional global crisis to the next level
will be the collapse of the Dollar. This could happen at any point in the
near future, from one year to seven, but it will happen! With the Central Banks holding IOUs from each other and governments' and particularly China, who hold US IOUs, which are damaging China's economy, in addition to their existing economic problems. If they should put their held US T-Bills, Treasury Notes, on the market or float their currency the Yuan (as apposed to pegging the Dollar,) -the American Dollar will Collapse. When, not if, this happens, the system will free fall again and major changes will take place.

What are my plans.
I am putting together some systems for a number of people, to support those who agree with my concerns of the future outcomes and who want a plan to take care and find a safer and prosperous position. The plan being formulated will take care of: Purchasing, Collection, Storage and Insurance, as well as a strategy for making real money available at all times, for the selling markets and a transfer system, as and when required. As well as the Tax and import and export responsibilies. Also, an account structure, which will be required to make use of the future changes and trading in and outside the system. There are a number of ways to invest in Gold and Silver here is a some examples, which you may already be investing in. But, I have valid reasons for not promoting these investment vehicles and I disagree with a number of these summaries.

Inside Story - China questions the dollar's value - 26 Mar 09 - Part 1

Uk government's plans following the Queen's Speach

What was and is the UK government preoccupied with? Has there been interest shown previously in the growing Banking and Finance activities, or the development in individual and national debt. Let's take a look at their areas of interest. The Labour Government has passed legislation 23 times regarding criminal justice and 5 Acts on immigration, 7 on terrorism, 11 on health and social care and 10 on education. According to the Liberal Democrats, it has also created more than 3,000 new crimes at a rate of nearly one a day and passed more than 32,000 statutory instruments.

The activities of Banks and other Lenders have received little attention during the debt party everyone was invited too. The FSA have been exposed for their part in the failure of the Tri-partite system of UK Finance Policy and controls, the other two being the Bank of England and the Treasury. There is no interest to expose the other players neither now, nor likely in the future. Unlike the US Federal Bank who are independent and privately owned, the Bank of England has been publicly owned since 1946 as it wished to act as a Central Bank rather than a Commercial Bank

Now, we see the Government of the UK throughing more fuel at the fire, to add to the rampant fire that has developed. The soft terms used to warn of the time ahead are unlikely to enlighten us of just how bad things are going to get. For those who don't have access to advice on what might be wise to do next, here are a few of my thoughts for what they may be of value.

Like Banks and Big Business in the UK the act of deleveraging themselves from their over Attachments/Commitments and Risks have become paramount. If you are on the edge on any of the following try to move away from the dangers of default and the contract responsibilities.

Mortgage – with my prediction of Houses losing 43 percent over the next 2-3 years, now, might be a good time to consider your options.

Lender groups like Banks and Credit Cards are not there to help and will act aggressively when arrears begin to develop, 2009 is not going to be kind to many people and the years to follow are not going to be much better. Consider how you can reduce your exposure. Seek quality financial advice and don’t cheat on the reality or extent of your position.

Start developing a sensible approach towards considering how you would move forward if your present traditions lost their familiar patterns, due to major economic and social changes forced on you by the crisis.

I would like to leave you with a peace of information of which all of the UK are already aware, but, may not see the extent of its warning. The UK has spent £5 Billion on a five year war with Iraq, with huge costs, both Human and Economic. So how dangerous do you think the situation is, to the Government today, when their first Bailout figure was set at 500 Billion plus, in comparison to the US’s similar figure, for a State 10 times the economic size of the UK.