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Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Oil at 75- 80 dollars a barral - will this continue or are there bigger issues?

I said back on November of 2008 that oil would require a price of 75-80 dollars to cover the needs of oil producing countries at this time. Between the deflationary Western economies and the Euro convulsion and crises, improving the dollar value whilst storing inflation and debt for our future. How is this likely to play itself out in the short to medium term? The answer to that question can only be answered after the forth quarter, as expressed through the analysis of the end of year's outcomes for 2010.

There is one certifiable fact that will be made clear by the end of 2010-11, which is, whether the system of many Western economies and their States -and the finance system of the West, have any real or shared interests surrounding policies of shared activity for recovery going into 2011. With capital looking for gains, from anywhere it can, to obtain both profit in the short term, with growth and future development in the long term. Western economies are not going to be seen as the rich humus soil for sowing future seeds for profit. The direction taken by capital, may expose, the short term question as far less relevant, when compared to the long term outlook and the West's position.

I see the existing system of capital, embedding itself into new and un-indebted economies. Capital is indifferent with regard to the people's struggles. It will move to where money, price and value, are best rewarded. Where real ownership of the production processes and control of labor exist -and, where real asset values for their portfolios show hard assets.

This lack of production and growth in Western societies (which is against the logic in nature in the long term, in the majority of environments), in comparison to Eastern economies is now growing closer. With the East's material needs and wants, as well as the new western style appetites being pandered to by profit seeking capital. Finally for the East, capital sees its future development at the table of growth and success for the East, which is likely to bring about great changes in the future. Empires have come and gone throughout history, due to their indebtedness and stagnation -followed by the decay of their economies and Old Order conflicts. And, by the development of fringe and dynamic nations and civilization's merging, then, taking over. Capital as a by-product of redevelopment or rebirth, will brush old systems aside -and, unless major changes take place within this period of decay the outcome will be no different again. As well as their developing education and technology advances for the East. If, positive changes don't take place during this systemic crisis, we may see the West in the future, looking like the tribes of Easter Island during their period of decay.

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