Oil at 75- 80 dollars a barral - will this continue or are there bigger issues?

I said back on November of 2008 that oil would require a price of 75-80 dollars to cover the needs of oil producing countries at this time. Between the deflationary Western economies and the Euro convulsion and crises, improving the dollar value whilst storing inflation and debt for our future. How is this likely to play itself out in the short to medium term? The answer to that question can only be answered after the forth quarter, as expressed through the analysis of the end of year's outcomes for 2010.

There is one certifiable fact that will be made clear by the end of 2010-11, which is, whether the system of many Western economies and their States -and the finance system of the West, have any real or shared interests surrounding policies of shared activity for recovery going into 2011. With capital looking for gains, from anywhere it can, to obtain both profit in the short term, with growth and future development in the long term. Western economies are not going to be seen as the rich humus soil for sowing future seeds for profit. The direction taken by capital, may expose, the short term question as far less relevant, when compared to the long term outlook and the West's position.

I see the existing system of capital, embedding itself into new and un-indebted economies. Capital is indifferent with regard to the people's struggles. It will move to where money, price and value, are best rewarded. Where real ownership of the production processes and control of labor exist -and, where real asset values for their portfolios show hard assets.

This lack of production and growth in Western societies (which is against the logic in nature in the long term, in the majority of environments), in comparison to Eastern economies is now growing closer. With the East's material needs and wants, as well as the new western style appetites being pandered to by profit seeking capital. Finally for the East, capital sees its future development at the table of growth and success for the East, which is likely to bring about great changes in the future. Empires have come and gone throughout history, due to their indebtedness and stagnation -followed by the decay of their economies and Old Order conflicts. And, by the development of fringe and dynamic nations and civilization's merging, then, taking over. Capital as a by-product of redevelopment or rebirth, will brush old systems aside -and, unless major changes take place within this period of decay the outcome will be no different again. As well as their developing education and technology advances for the East. If, positive changes don't take place during this systemic crisis, we may see the West in the future, looking like the tribes of Easter Island during their period of decay.

Is the S & P 500 fall now on the cards, as warned in January and August?

I stated in January and again in August and September, what I felt would happen over this second and third quarter of 2010. The S & P 500 has made some efforts to break out, in this third quarter to the upside, after following the predictive pattern I set out in January 2010. I am still comfortable with the view that the market is due a negative move down, following the market's failure to continue its upward movement, resulting from governments' stimulus activities and bailouts in 2008-9. Now that these have been spent and new infusions will be added, only after the shocks have taken effect, which ly ahead. I wish to point at my previous assumptions which I have stated as part of my evaluation of this year's economic market movements.


I said on August 11th, in addition to my prediction as to the S & P 500's movement, that, if I had additional funds I would add the USD/CHF and USOil to my market trades. That statement was as follows: "If I had the funds, I would add two more trades, the USD/CHF and USoil. The first I would trade Short and the second I would also trade Short initially and then, after its support point and full turn has been reached, go Long."

I would be happy at this point to close the USD/CHF NOW, as I don't see the market falling much lower than this. The USD/CHF bottom is most likely here, at this point. I also stated too, go Short -and then Long, as oil turned, switching any time from the end of August to the first week in September would of bought real profits in both directions to this trade. I expect this to continue up to the resistance of around 88 dollars if it breaks through 83$, unless the S & P 500 turns, and a market shock takes place, which has a real possibility of occurring in this month of October. If this happens oil will follow in the short term. It would be reasonable to ask, why didn't I use my funds on the second two trades first? The answer would be, 'I could not be sure when the S & P might fall,' so I needed my limited funds to secure my entry.

I Have also said repeatedly since 2008, that Silver would be an excellent way, of both protecting wealth and making real wealth possible, over the next 5 years in particular. This view still stands. As I study the activities of Governments and the Finance Cartels and their actions over their economies, there is absolutely NO free market today. They, with the exception of only a small number of States appear to have, a bipolar disorder, in their relationship with one-another. Their interests appear to have very little to do with reality and long term philosophical perspectives and agreement with one-another. With the exception of world finance and government oligarch aspirations.

I do not wish to bore readers with my historical knowledge of governments and systems of capital, but, the following are points of historical fact. If this epoch is the final expression of the period of mature Capitalism in decay -and the system is committing suicide, as has happened at least 5 time in the last eight hundred years. Following the periods of Mercantile, Commercial, Finance and Monopoly and the so called Pluralist epochs -and, rebirth's of capitalism. The Geo-Political environment we now see growing, particularly in the last 10 years. Expose an example of the stages which follow the systemic convulsions, which exist, during the periods of decay of capital. Whether a new world empire and capital system is born of this period, only time will tell. What history has shown, is, that it requires periods of usurpation of regions and cultures.

Could the third quarter of 2010 be a Double Dip or not?

Going back to my previous Post and bringing the two together in this update. My previous warnings, appear to be shared by a number of analysts, in this period ahead. Mark Faber whose view I value, does not share my views, he is of the opinion, that whilst there may be some movement to the down-side, governments are happy to intervene and carry-on with new infusions, as and when required.

I have great respect for Marc Faber's views, as he is one of the world's consummate global macro economists, whose interpretations and analysis of the markets are excellent. Marc states that if the S & P 500 hits 950 governments will re-inflate. I don't doubt his rational or his evaluation. I feel however, they (governments), will hesitate in their action to re-inflate, as a result, re-inflation will not take effect quickly enough. During which time the momentum will drive down the S & P 500 and a convulsion is likely to follow. This will proceed another period of manipulation for those like Goldman Sachs and others, where their consolidation of the market and previous bets against the markets, will return their dividends for the end of this year -and planning, for next.


Deflation has historically been viewed as very good for the group's psychological confidence, that is to say, the Merchant, Private and Investment banks (as they are referred to) and, who are in the loop. As they are less concerned for Deposit and only in recent times, in Commercial Banks as they have digressed into the market. Deflation may not help economies but Governments and Merchant banks can make use of such periods to support debt issues and improve the Merchant's assets, which for this group are, EXPORT VALUES and CASH VALUE. As the system of finance knows, banks are insolvent entities from the moment they are born. Yes, this group will have plenty of debt hidden in the OTC and Shadow and Dark Pool Markets, last but not least, the big brother, incorporating many of these, the Derivatives Market. There is very little information or facts open to governments and the public, as to the specific location and amounts of debt and leverage positions, leaning on these banking conglomerates' balance sheets.


These two Graphs express the continued sideways motion of the market, which for myself, exposes the failure of the West's Markets to continue in their extraordinary growth pattern which existed during their re-inflation. The period of the fulcrum of market stimulus is now beginning give-way -and, the leverage and debt issues are continuing to expose themselves to the reality that the West will continue to deflate.

Looking at the objects noted on a daily chart, will give you access to some of the variables and the concerns I have for this period ahead. I don't buy into the stabilization argument. That the system expresses recovery because some banks and states feel they are resolving the crisis with bank profits and austerity public policies. Those responsible are continuing with business as usual, (especially the to big to fail group), as a result, no change to their overall approach to profit making has changed. The fraud still exists and the Oligarchs are repositioning the Geo-Political and Finance System. The groups who have control of which, as previously stated, the BIS have a fundamental position, along with others I have listed in the past. And on the subject of the future of the Western economies, growth, in the near future will belong to the East predominately, as I stated back in 2008. In my Look to the East Post. And deflation is still holding the Western economies with very few exceptions.

Is this the growing future of Economies in the West?

This is the final video I'm putting onto this list, this was posted on Youtube by Aaron Tube handle adb024, in June 2010. These videos show just how the crisis in expressing itself in the US in 2010-11. This is the face of the reality you are not shown on main stream TV. These video expose the breadth and depth of the crisis coming to what are termed Western Liberal Democracies.

Economic Collapse Malls Go Bankrupt
At Gateway Mall Springfield Oregon



economic collapse! vacaville, ca.


This is an example of the growing concerns over what we arrogantly believe in the West could never happen. But, we do at present, spend 10 calories to produce 1 calorie of energy, does that make sense to you! Whether this video's predictions are correct in its time line statement is not the issue for me. It's the fact that the issue is both growing and coming.

Food Crisis 2010 and US Dollar Impact.



Economic Collapse First Hand Shipping Ports Empty Portland Oregon


The Farming effects in Oregon. Even the Dollar or Pound Shop couldn't escape the effects

Economic Collapse Dollar Store Shut Down Inventory confiscated



Economic Collapse Eugene Oregon New Housing Crisis



California commerical real estate collapse 2010 ( Rocklin,ca)



economic collapse! vallejo, ca.

Where is the Systemic Crisis now in 2010-11, are we on the way out?

In response to the heading, it depends upon how you interpret the phrase "on the way out". Let's look at the facts. Deflation has taken hold of the world's GWP to the tune of -12% in 2009-10. The US is in a deflationary spiral. Whilst the UK is showing some inflationary conditions, and is throwing sugar coated sovereign debt at the diabetic Deflationary Monster. Where do I see the outcome? Where it has been since 2008, knowing the situation of the financial system of the Central Banking Cartels. The system is bankrupt. The global financial system of capital is completely fraudulent. This is not a politically extremist statement this is an informed objective summary of the state of global finance.

Players in the Crisis.
I see the attempts by Governments and Central Banks who are trying to retake control of the failed financial system of capital, which has developed into a struggle to control and regain control and power. The Systemic controllers and currency value manipulators (Central Banking Cartels and International merchant Banks, Forex and Stock Market players et.al and Industrial Cartels) and the State system, which unlike the bracketed group have civil society to answer too in addition to those groups. The reality is, they (governments) are armatures (prefects' with a badge), part timers, in the art of government and finance. They have no control over their real masters who control the flow of money, and sit in Foundations around the world, philosophising on public policy, the state and money; old money only infer to such subjects.

Quantitative Easing Crisis Response.
So what does the future hold for the West? The Central Banking System and BIS, is doing what they were created to do, to inflate the Fiat Currencies of the world. Even if the Global GWP grows over the next year or two (from its present decline), it will be the result of the East not the West. I see more real deflation (even if Governments become the national employer). Sovereign Debt will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate over the coming years. BIS's national Central Banks with their Quantitative Easing programme have become the Caboose and the coal mine for the economic engine. Whilst this action has helped the Banksters and their minions, it will only rob the average man, woman and child of their comfort -and their futures. I said back in 2008 that, "the inflation of the 1970s will look quite tame" and it will! The interest rate issue will also need to be added to this pot, once cheap money and the BIS stop buying Bonds/Securities and look for private market buyers through improved incentives and their guarantees must be assured. The present Bond Market is already showing explosive fuses and from every marketable type of Bond that is T-Bills and Bonds.

Interest Rates.
By the BIS inflating currencies as is their primary role in life, as previously stated. Their logic is as follows. Monetary Inflation takes place annually in good times, but, whilst the system is debt ridden, QE is the natural mechanism of the central bank, allowing the debt to become both cheaper and payable. The objective is, as the servicing of debt becomes overwhelming to the groups (Banks, Commercial and public as well as private borrowers), by a QE policy you reduce the debt to the Banks and the commercial, public or government groups, with new money. This in tern reduces the value of products and services so increasing the cost to the public. Ironically, the people in turn are expected to produce the market's insulin with their transacting, which will become scarce under such deflationary conditions. Also, reducing their risk of defaulting on their recorded debt with banks et.al. With low interest rates for the banks and high interests for the public, comparatively, lenders gain some control of the system of debt default and can adjust their pressure on the risks.

Deflation and summary.
The double hammer on the cards and unaccounted for by the BIS's system of money control and inflationary policy is the [deflationary hammer]. If the system continues to see deflation and particularly if government interference can not halt the continuing deflation of real GDP, and monetary inflation continues, then, the system has a real risk of collapsing.

What is quite obvious when you consider the facts. How can you have a reduction in production -and labour value, whilst still servicing your debts at a time of inflation? This can only have one outcome under such circumstances DEFAULT. But, when that combination of excessive sovereign debt, debt ridden finance system, systemic market fraud and public debt. And yes there is more. Deflationary market economy, with an economic depression and quantitative easing programme, buying state debt and devaluing the products and services and producing inflation when real incomes are going down. Do I need to say more? Can you see these elements in our western liberal societies. Can you see the markets going back to pre 2007 excesses? I see a real possibility of 20-25% deflation in the West, in real terms on previous output, when you recall production during the credit and debt accumulation period, when both were in vogue.

The East has all the cheap labour and internal markets among themselves. The UK and US and Europe in general, though not so for Europe's Germany, will continue to have balance of trade issues, due to their poorly competitive export products, untrusted and out of vogue, at the table of exports. Equally bad too, after seeing the corruption in the West's finance system the East have no reason to trust the finance services coming to them from the West, where some have already flown off to new markets. Those fresh Eastern markets will be where the West's new Head Offices reside in the future, adding to the Hedge Fund Manager and Bankers already there. In addition to well educated and locally speaking cheap general labour, who are on tap. The developing and new Cartels will be centring themselves in the East in the future, on a flight from the West. It's worth taking a look at my 2008 posts and look for the options and choices to be made.

Is this the beginning of the end for Europe's Euro?

I said back in 2008, as Congress agreed to bailout the Banks in the US, that, the effects of this, may be the expo sea of an underlying agenda and the beginning of the end, or at least, the beginning of a systemic change -and an anti-democratic change -and a further shift of power to an elite group. One of the side effects of that shift of power, would be, that under a system of Professional Bankers and linked Institutes (BIS, et al.) we may now be moving to the next stage of a systemic finance repositioning. This new chapter is born out of Systemic Bankruptcy and the philosophy of Realpolitik. As the Anglo-American interests in Marjah unfold, the Euro Zone also has their battle, as well as the attention and Anglo-American interests who look on. I said "The European Monetary System may be on its way out,"and its present condition might require a little push or no push at all (when a push was in-need) to increase the stress on the Euro Zone, of which we see both.

Are we seeing a concerted effort on the part of the UK and US to drive the stake into the heart of the Euro or are they trying to help? As their Oligarch inside Basel (their Central Banking Anglo-American click) and media machine cranks up the revs, with their fanning of the EU's fires and their problems being framed, the pressure is now on the Euro.

The IMF with their interest in being inside the struggle, under the pretence of wanting to help, whilst stating they were not offering financial support at this point, only advisory support. This institute has its origins and form based in America, which will expose its nature during this crisis,as we saw during the Fed and Goldman Sachs actions, when Lehman Brothers had their extra little push. Or the Northern Rock push by the Tripartite system of the UK. I said recently that the Banking cartels will require another convulsion to stimulate new fertile crops,(and too loose another competitor is a bonus), well, look what we have hear? Is pressure being put on the EU at this time by politicians and media of other States. Are they fanning the fire in the Fiat Currency confidence game, you do not want cries of no confidence in the F.C game?

The FX Market will cease the opportunity for short term profit and sell off the Euro on mass. This in effect, will be a inverted run on the currency. There could be as much as a 4 to 6% fall in the coming week, before action to halt the slide is enacted on the Market. There will be an Anglo-American party held in private, in the small hours, after the market crisis for the EU. The irony giving power back to the Euro, is a weak, but not dead Euro, could make the Euro interesting to import/export markets for foreigners, so injured is not as useful as dead.

Here is an example of hitting at the nature of Fiat Currency, Confidence destroying.



The Dollar vs The Euro

This Tool should be in every Net User's machine!

I don't promote software packages as a rule. Not for any major reason, I just don't want my site to look like an advertisement board for companies and vendors. But, sometimes the value of not sharing out ways that decision. So, here it is. Rssowl Ver 2.0 is one of those valued moments.

There is an excellent group of small explanations and videos, which accompanies this software. Importantly to many, its free, but donations are always a welcomed form of support for these Sites and Teams. Hopefully you are familiar with various syndication Aggregators also called Web Feeders of which there are many.

I will give you an example of the software's uses. Say you have several projects on the go and you are collecting information from numerous sources: Bloggs, Web Sites as well as News Papers from around the world and Companies and Organisations. You can keep up to date with any, and all changes applicable to you, with the simple click of a button. As well as saving those interesting and useful sites directly too the software. I am able to go through the headline of News Papers on the six Continents, simultaneously and laid out on a single well formatted screen. I can then short-list the stories of interest for comprehensive reading. This is just one example of this software's functions.

I will leave the video to explain more detail of this software's power. Take the time to listen carefully, because, used correctly, in particular the search function, you can streamline your ability to get to the hart of the subject under consideration. A link to the software's download location has been put on the left hand side of the page.

Will October 2009 be the next stage, CRASH No.2

Are we primed for another crash! There are those of us out there who feel we are primed for the next systemic convulsion. I said back in March of this year, that we had not seen the last of the effects of this systemic crisis and there are others who share this view.

This video came from Marketmeltdown.com


7/7/2009 BRACE for "OCTOBER CRASH" The EconomicClock


FUTURE STOCK MARKET CRASH 2009 IMMINENT!! SEPT 10 2009 From Spuuman
>



Whether the timing of these views are correct is not as important as their likelihood of being realized. These events have a real possibility of happening and if they do, the vast majority of people are ill prepared for the effects. The subsequent loses and individual disasters that individual's are going to experience in the developing crisis, requires a short and long term strategy, just in case. We hear statements from various sources, stating, we're over the crisis and on our way back up. These views promotes the wrong kind of behavior of many different Countries' citizens.

The Future for Governments and Central Banks

We now see governments like the US and UK espousing Global G20 responsibilities to come together and form an uniformed Global Approach to the crisis. Well, will it work? No, is the simple answer. They still don't get it, by that I mean the governments.

The nearest this group have come to sharing a single philosophy, was, in their Central Bank's attempts to share a single International Market Development Monetary Policy, and look where that has got the world. The UK and the US believe they have the golden sword, which will cut through this crisis. But, will the G20 pull their swords and join the crusade.

If they do, will the actions we've seen to date, which have not resolved the underlying issues in the system continue. We continue to see the adoption of the system's collapse, moving from those responsible, to the people. The nature of the system is now developing into a, 'we must be helped or you government's are to blame' for our collapse. We, as individuals, must continue to prepare for the changes that are coming and deleverage ourselves from the our dangerous debts, were possible, which will drowned some of us. Here are the IF statements, you need to consider. IF Interest Rates went up to 12 -15% over the next 2-3 years, could you survive? IF Inflation went up even hirer than that figure in the same period, do you have enough disposable income to cover that lost value, in real income terms. IF you lost 30% of your annual income, due to unemployment in the household, would your present expenditure go into free-fall?

Think about these questions and consider alternative ways of surviving. Because, whilst the first two are not with UK or the US, or in Europe and China, as well as other economies, the last one has already hit millions of homes and will hit millions more over the coming years.

As the Fiat Currency hits the streets over the next year or so and continuing government intervention takes place, the other two IF's will follow, it’s as obvious as night following day and vice versa.

I have another point or suspicion, based on the present climate and the developing situation, that is, that, we are moving toward the next stage of the crisis, but, not before a contradictory period. This Fiat Currency and Government intervention are, and should be, expressing themselves. Whilst the people are unconfident, and Central, Commercial and Local Banks, are going under transfusions we will only see miner improvements. But, these causations will pick up in momentum as false confidence returns. As this happens, the expansion of the other two IF's will be brought about, following the next stage of the collapse; when people start to believe things are beginning to improve.

There are still more convulsions ahead, which are further warnings of the depth of the systemic crisis. I believe a major Banking Group will fall. Unless of course, the Bank's Government may continue to through their people's future at the issue. I believe this collapse will take out hundreds of Associative banks and in one of the G20 economies most likely one of the top 5. This will push us into the next stage of the systemic crisis. So, look out in September, October of 2009, history has a great way of repeating itself.

What Options do I have in this Crisis?

As the crisis worsens, more and more people are showing their exposure
to the crisis as we act within the system there is little choice. So, what
alternatives do we have? Well first, I would like to list examples of
what I call exposure.

The People's position
People with life savings in cash and in investment environments (stocks, shares,
trackers, Pensions etc.). People with over-leveraged Mortgages on one, two or
more properties, Loans of all types and sizes. People who are employed
in the early effected industries in this, the early part of the crisis. As we
accept we are caught up in the coming changes, as is, the reality, with our
personal debts and contractual responsibilities. Logic tells you to
try and get out of the way, but when you are trapped with obligations
and responsibilities, all you can do is 'hope' that things will
recover before you are affected. You can only wait and see, and hope.

So how can I help? Unfortunately, the only people I can do something for,
are those who are reading this -even then, only if, they value the
information set out on this site and, at the cost of those who don't
know what to do, who will become one of the statistics of this systemic crisis.

The Players
This is how I believe the coming problems will play themselves out. I will
use the UK, as an example, for many States who have failed the people and
US and China. I will focus on these as an example of some of major
players in the world today. As well as their position in this crisis
and their likely involvement in the mayhem ahead.

Prognosis
I agree with a number of analysts, we are about to see the largest ever shift of
wealth. 1929 will look quite tame in comparison to the degree of
economic shifts we are about to see. Thanks to weak Governments and the
Global Banking System with its nature based on debt and profit as a
means of production, we now must move forward and change our strategy
to recover from this failing position.

As Governments continue do try and spend their way out of this financial and systemic mayhem, they will only achieve certain outcomes: in their attempt to divert and holt the extent of the crash and liquidity crisis and over-legeraged system, at the cost of the depth and extension of the crisis; the bottling up of inflation for our futures; the explosion of public debt, both, for the present and future generations. In addition, Government's around the world, have given their resources to the banks and big business for their recovery. As next year proves to be even worse, more banks will collapse, after requiring public money which will disappear. This, so that the people can adopted their failures in the form of: expanding Debts, Toxic Waste (banks and big business toxic assets),Taxes, indirect and direct -and Government debt, as well as the collapsing industries and their lost jobs, taking hold around the world.

So what's my advice?
With savings and investments in the firing line, there are two defensive actions that can be taken. Currencies and commodities are becoming more volatile than ever. Although the right stratergist can still make use of the International Stock Markets. So, getting outside the system and protecting yourself, whilst still acting with the system will become more and more important. Changing savings into Gold and Silver is a real move, in getting out side the system, but not in Pools, Certificates and ETFs, unless your ETF is a short term speculative activity. You want possession of your metals. Should you have a considerable amount, there are secure storage facilities available that will protect and validate their existence, which is important during liquidation of the asset.

Mortgages and Loans
On the subject of Mortgages and Loans, whilst we may see interest rates stay low for some time. This will only exist whilst Central Banks pay lip service to politicians and as part of their internationl trading, as well as their rhetoric, to lift the domestic and small business Lender's moral during this finance/Banking crisis. If lending did increase, interest rates would follow. Once Deflation has expressed itself on economies, the Fiat Currency production will make its presense known. With governments printing more and more Fiat currency, which will dilute the value of that Fiat paper adding further Stealth Taxes, with inflation. This action will reduce people's income value. At a particular point, things may feel good for some debt payers (due to the early hyper-inflationary character of over printed Fiat currencies). Then, the banks will increase interest rates to cover their lost revenue value or accounts verses the economic cost of running their business.

Properties Loses, LTV
Properties are loosing their inflated values, which have a long way to fall yet. If you calculate the loses at about 43% over the next two years or so, now would be a good time to move out of over-leveraged Mortgages. Selling at slightly below their market value can move you out of the danger zone. Coming back to the market in the future, will see them at the bottom of this fall. With your Fiat currency falling against real money, Gold and Silver -we will see them out perform inflation, as its nature demands. Also, whilst property values continue to fall in the coming period. You will be in a strong position to recover. Be careful to check there are no obligations in your mortgage product that require you to keep the LTV in positive balance. Don't be fooled by housing cost increases, that is the effect of inflation, not value, its the cost of living going up.

There is insufficient time to explain many of the elements or all of the areas of importance to the act of, buying Gold and Silver. Silver is my personal preference, as I feel it will out perform gold. I would be happy to answer any questions asked of me on the subject. The existing system will not promote this action as inteligent, as it is, the antitheses, of the exiting system. Governments will do all they can to take control after the dollar collapses to stop and control precious metal markets whilst they revert to the Gold Standard in some form and away from Fiat Currencies.

Stocks or Commodities
Being in Stocks and Shares at this time is very dangerous and requires real knowledge under the present conditions, such people are very thin on the ground, as we can see with the Stock Markets around the world. Be very careful and pessimistic about the existing perceptions on the
subject. Commodities have room for development but One needs to know their subject. The above statements are far safer at this moment for those looking for security and protection, with the possibility of profit, in real terms existing under the present climate, a real possibility.

Before these conditions run their course try and use this lower interest period if your not already trapped in a fixed interest position to pay off what you can now, Credit Cards, Secure Loans and Even Mortgages, for those in the position to do so. What ever the Governments and media are saying, this situation is going to be with us for the foreseeable future (decades, not years) and we are going to see many changes.


The Future of the Fiat Currency
The stage that will bring the additional global crisis to the next level
will be the collapse of the Dollar. This could happen at any point in the
near future, from one year to seven, but it will happen! With the Central Banks holding IOUs from each other and governments' and particularly China, who hold US IOUs, which are damaging China's economy, in addition to their existing economic problems. If they should put their held US T-Bills, Treasury Notes, on the market or float their currency the Yuan (as apposed to pegging the Dollar,) -the American Dollar will Collapse. When, not if, this happens, the system will free fall again and major changes will take place.

What are my plans.
I am putting together some systems for a number of people, to support those who agree with my concerns of the future outcomes and who want a plan to take care and find a safer and prosperous position. The plan being formulated will take care of: Purchasing, Collection, Storage and Insurance, as well as a strategy for making real money available at all times, for the selling markets and a transfer system, as and when required. As well as the Tax and import and export responsibilies. Also, an account structure, which will be required to make use of the future changes and trading in and outside the system. There are a number of ways to invest in Gold and Silver here is a some examples, which you may already be investing in. But, I have valid reasons for not promoting these investment vehicles and I disagree with a number of these summaries.

Inside Story - China questions the dollar's value - 26 Mar 09 - Part 1

Is the Housing Market the cause of the Crisis?

The UK and US are putting the blame on the Housing Market as though there were no other major issues growing along side the Sub-Prime Market. Yes, it's true, that The Property Market has been a major valued market for the failing Banking finance and Capital System. But, does this explain how the UK and US Housing Market's have effected the rest of the world. No. So what is the extent of problems.

The world is waking up to the degree of debt hiding behind the overall finance systems and the warnings of over leverage. This link will explain how this works. Look at the diagram on the right for an explanation. The Uk Government are showing little interest in exposing the systemic issues by an exposed investigation and are neither interested in publicly investigating those responsible for the failures and the false economy gains since The Bank of England's independence in 1997 and the repeated international crisis and earlier warning in 2000-2 in the UK.

As well as the deregulated and poorly regulated finance systems in both the UK and US, among others. The previous economic problems and warnings were skipped over by the UK Government as well as other Governments around the world. With Credit and New House markets stimuluses and deregulated Government policies around finance practices, producing an inflated housing market and the expansion of individual debt, moving the issue of debt and over-leverage even further beyond control.

The development of Recession around the world and Deflation in the UK at present, again, this link will explain the symptoms and the character, whilst it may be bad news for governments and national markets, historically, it's not bad news for the banking system. Deflation historically give banks more for their money, as long as their present lending Vs asset value is covered by any default issues, as we see with the housing markets amongst other parts of the system i.e. Property, Securities and Insurance etc. were over valued. Many of these debts are spread around as investment vehicles called MBS and SIVand ABS, again explained in the links. These Investment Vehicles can be bought and sold over and over again, as has been the case.

Now, if the Housing Markets' condition are an example and indicative of the system's method of capital development and it appears so, the true value and risk of many assets exposed to debt are inflated to the point of explosion. We see evidence of this around the world in: Housing, Company values, Finance yields and Securities and Commodity levels of development etc. etc., the list goes on. This chased state of rational, by Capital Borrowing and debt, has exposed the Over Leveraged nature of the system. In a world were there is a finite limit of resources, the fuels that feed the modern system of living requires change. We need a revolution, on a par with the Industrial Revolution that took place in the later part of the 18th century following the Agricultural Revolution of the same century in the UK.

So, if I was to put a list of sectors being effected and the effects this Global Crisis is going to have on these sectors, it would be something like this:

House prices will continue to fall in the UK as elsewhere similarly, resting at about 43 percent below their present value, over the next two to three years. This will bring them back to their natural historical value of the 20th Century.

Oil will level off at $75-80 a barrel, to continue supporting the Arab development spending requirements, whilst oil prices still have to exist in the new recessionary global environment.

Far more over-leveraged institutions and Securities will have to fall, under the loss of bank support and poor refinancing packages, as companies are in debt and over-leveraged, as well as high risk in Recessional markets.

Whilst many governments can not understand or are unable to state the real outcomes ahead. Governments don't understand what the effects of these Bailouts to Banks, Insurance Companies and large National Companies are going to cost, in these crashing markets in the long term. With banks running for cover, with the money and Finance Markets and their clients, left to fend for themselves. The Finance Markets are exposing the issues, in real time. The FED has gone back on their promise to buy into a number of these toxic/depressed Assets and are now looking for private investors to take on these Assets.

Whilst governments are now agreeing with a Keynesian macro-economic approach to industry ownership and direct Government market involvement, even though Keynesianism was a dirty word to the Free Market ideology. I don't believe ownership of debt ridden industries is what Keynesianism actually meant, when the concept was envisaged. Governments are buying into these Assets, even though they are made up of toxic waste and debts and expanding this government policy. Also, with recession expressing itself in the future with inflation, which I believe will rise to at least as high as the UK in the 70s over the next 2 years, due to the Fiat production that is underway. You can not have an environment of collapsing industries, rising unemployment, huge debt servicing and extraordinary public debt rising and a negative environment for banks to trade in, failing currency value, without a major and long term recession. Looking at interest rate cuts and tax breaks and at a time when new debt will only increase the tsunami's effects.

The present collective position of the world in reality is now based around interest on debt, which looks as though it's threatening to overtake the value of the Capital System or profit ability. This means that there is a need for more borrowing to keep up with the servicing of the debt and the international crisis.